Governor Pataki has decided not to seek a fourth term in 2006. As a long standing critic of the governor, of course I think this is the right move for him, but I want to elaborate for those that may think this is a gut reaction.
More below.............
Pataki has been in office for 11 years, as long as his predecessor, Mario Cuomo. Cuomo was defeated in 1994, in part because the people of the state had simply had enough. Pataki suffers from the same sort of fatigue. His third term has been a series of let-downs - he has been anything but inspiring. His approval even amongst Republicans in New York is dismal (GOP voters only give him about 67% approval). He has virtually nothing to run on - at this point, anything he has not yet done simply begs the question of "why not - in 11 years you couldn't get it done?"
I am thrilled that the Governor has finally made his decision. Elliot Spitzer runs far in front in the polls, but it is also very clear that Spitzer's "campaign" has entirely rested on his reputation as a "bulldog of corporate fraud." Unfortunately for Mr. Spitzer, that does not inherently make for a good governor. He has yet to lay out any positions that would make one confident in his ability to serve as a chief executive. Now that Pataki is out, other Republicans can fill the void and can start to "attack" Spitzer for his utter lack of positive ideas for what to do with the governor's office.
Now, I do not believe that the Republicans will be able to beat Spitzer, but Pataki's decision to step aside will force the New York Republican Party to look to the future. And while 2006 may be a hopeless effort - the party must - I repeat MUST - rebuild. In the decade he has served George Pataki has done next to <i>nothing</i> to build the Party. Thus, it is not surprising that the Party has no bench to call on to succeed the Governor. Some might say that Pataki should run again as the best hope - but that is simply false security. Even if he should win re-election, the problem remains - there is nobody to replace him, and even with 4 more years, I would wager a goodly sum that Pataki would still not develop a "bench" for the Party. If the New York Republican Party is going to be more than a mere token, they are best served by being forced to confront their weakness sooner rather than later.
And to Mr. Pataki's advisers, who think that the Governor can realistically sustain presidential viability - GET REAL! Most New Yorkers wouldn't vote for Mr. Pataki in a primary - they'd sooner vote for John McCain or Rudy Giuliani. And Pataki simply cannot sell his northeastern Republicanism to voters in places like Iowa and South Carolina, who vote early on in the process.
George Pataki has had his last hurrah. One can only hope he has seen as much and will not humiliate himself in the electoral arena in the future.
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