First - and a biggie - Rhode Island. Stu Rothenberg has a new piece, reprinted from Roll Call, discussing the entry of Mayor Stephen Laffey into the Republican primary race. His assessment is that incumbent Chafee will be running from behind and that recent polling showing Laffey well behind is probably off the mark. I wouldn't disagree with the eminent Mr. Rothenberg. In fact, his comments about Laffey's populist approach (as opposed to a hard-line conservative approach), suggest that Laffey may be positioning for the general election. But, Rothenberg doesn't address what I think could be used by the Chafee campaign - polls that show Laffey would significantly trail both Democrat candidates. Chafee continues to run ahead of both Democrat options (though Sheldon Whitehouse seems to have a nice lead on the Democrat side). The "electability" card will be powerful with a number of Rhode Island Republicans. I see the fervor for jettisoning Chafee to be coming more from vocal parties who are outside the state. Inside the state, I think there is a significant bloc of GOP voters who want to hold the seat. If polls continue to show Laffey trailing the Democrats while Chafee leads them, Chafee will remind voters of that and suggest that Laffey can't win - and that they should keep him on the ticket if they want to hold onto that seat.
Personally, I'm torn at the moment. If I voted in Rhode Island, I would be in that "pragmatic bloc." On an absolute scale I don't care much for Chafee. But I also don't care for Democrats. If polls around primary day show Laffey trailing Whitehouse, I simply wouldn't be willing to take the risk of losing the seat simply to "send a message" or even for the simpler reason of purging Chafee. This one will likely be a roller coaster, and I wouldn't be surprised to see poll after poll showing big numbers of undecideds.
Second - West Virginia. I still haven't seen any news about Rep. Capito jumping in. I know her dad wants her to get in. But here's why I think she'll stay out. One - 2006 is not going to be a Republican disaster year, but it is certainly not going to be another 1994 - second term midterm with a seemingly unpopular Congress doesn't bode well. Two - Bob Byrd is Bob Byrd. He has almost taken on mythic proportions, is so associated with his state (most of the state is named after him), and is such a skilled politician (you don't spend nearly 70 years in public life without being good at the game), that he has a definite edge, even in Red West Virginia. Three - and the clincher for me - 2008 is riper. West Virginia's presidential leanings will provide a coattail to any Republican Senate candidate, especially one of Capito's stature. In addition, she would face off against Jay Rockefeller, who is more liberal than Byrd and splendidly less noteworthy than Byrd. While we all salivate at the idea of unseating a guy like Bob Byrd, the reality is that we should save our big gun for the better circumstance - and in West Virginia, that's 2008. Capito losing to Byrd in 2006 would damage her and would make it difficult for her to run another campaign in 2008 against another incumbent. I'm sure that's part of her calculus - and I would probably want to keep the powder dry here.
One 2006 Senate thought: Pat Toomey, President of the Club for Growth, is rooting for Stephen Laffey. His interpretation of the race is, as I understand it, Chafee's only chance to stay in the race and not lose the primary is to switch to Independent in which case he would draw votes from moderates as well as Democrats, giving Laffey a victory in the general. But hey, what does Pat Toomey know anyway?
Posted by: patty | October 08, 2005 at 02:06 PM